Eugene Oregon Real Estate Blog by Craig Tomlinson


Earthquakes
The destruction from the recent earthquake in Japan and in Christchurch, New Zealand is a reminder of how vulnerable we all can be.  All construction and engineering is a balance between risk management and economics.  It’s possible to build a structure that will essentially never fall down.  However, that would be very expensive—and affording the building is the real key.
So how safe are structures in Eugene and Springfield?  At least one company thought they weren’t safe enough—Symantec is spending millions of dollars to upgrade its Springfield facilities.

The possibility of an earthquake in Lane County is there—we live in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which is known to be seismically active.  So what can you do?  Local building codes have continued to become more stringent and therefore more earthquake resistant so new structures will fare better if an earthquake does happen.  Plus, earthquake insurance is available.

What do most of us do?  Ignore the risk.

 

Will building codes keep earthquake aftermath in Lane County from looking like this?



Significant Source of Lane County Employment Slowly Recovering

The logging and wood products industries are recovering, but slowly.  Both are significant sources of employment in Lane County.  Additionally, the housing market is the chief source of demand for wood products.  Construction of more single-family houses is what’s needed, but building of such homes is at low levels around Eugene Springfield—and nationwide.

Before more new home building can start up, the inventory of existing homes for sale needs to decrease.  In the meantime, it’s a great time to buy.



New Home Building Slows

New home construction fell to an all time low in February 2011, with an annualized national number of building permits at 517K.  In Eugene Springfield new residential building is very slow right now.  New building permits issued in January were reported to be 27, down 13% from January 2010.  466 building permits were issued in Eugene Springfield for all of last year.

Distressed properties are often cheaper than replacement cost, and there’s a lot of inventory of all types of houses to be sold; until both of those change, I don’t expect new house building to pick up much.

It’s still a great time to buy, though.  Prices are down in Eugene Springfield and there are some great values.

There are fewer homes being built in Eugene Springfield in 2011



Eugene Springfield Commute Times Low

Often, people choose to live in Eugene or Springfield because of their excellent quality of life, including low crime rates, close proximity to recreation, and short commute times.  I sometimes forget how much of a convenience a short commute can be.  I live in the country and am at my office on River Road in about 12 minutes, and less if I’m running late.

A recent article pointed out that over 3 million Americans have commutes over 90 minutes each way to work.  That 3 hours a day adds up to over 20 weeks a year spent in your car per year.  Yuck.  Commute times in Eugene are short.  Nearly ½ of us spend less than 14 minutes each way getting to work, and about 3/4 of us spend no more than 19 minutes.

Eugene has very short commute times

As a brilliant marketing campaign says, “we’ve got it good.”



Eugene’s Railroad

We don’t often think about the Railroad in Eugene, unless there’s a problem–it’s just one of those things we take for granted.  We are on the main-line between Seattle and Los Angeles, and local manufacturers still ship and receive product by rail car, a very efficient transportation method.  (A train can move a ton of freight over 400 miles on 1 gallon of fuel, some three times more efficient than trucks).  And, shooting up to Portland or Seattle via Amtrack is popular.

Gone, at least for now, are the major switching operations in the Eugene railyard.  After Union Pacific bought Southern Pacific, many of the Eugene yard’s functions were consolidated to Roseville and elsewhere.  When I was growing up here, S.P.’s yard was a significant employer.  In the necessary drive towards efficiency, those jobs seem to be gone.  Interestingly, rail shipping rates in the U.S. are the cheapest in the world.

On a brighter note, the elimination of the Eugene switching yard has made the adjoining neighborhoods in Santa Clara, River Road and Bethel more desirable.   Train noise was a perceived problems when switching was occurring, but that’s been largely made a non-issue.

Eugene is connected to the U.S. by rail



Renewable Energy

Eugene thinks of itself as a Green city, but it sounds like Reno may be beating us on this front.  They recently installed nine different wind turbines so that the City and the public could evaluate their performance.  Reno also has solar power helping to generate electricity.  One thing that’s cool about their system is that you can go on-line and look at its power generation real-time.  Looks like Eugene has some catching up to do.

Looking at real-time power generation in Reno



Economic Expansion Largest In Years

In a recent Wall Street Journal article it was reported that the rate of economic expansion (GDP increase) is expected to be its largest since 2003.   And while national unemployment is still high, it is expected to dip below 9% by the year’s end.  Currently the unemployment in Lane County is still above 10%.
 
So what does this mean for housing prices?   Housing prices are affected by a number of factors, but fundamentally, it comes down to supply and demand.  High unemployment decreases demand; you need a job in order to pay your mortgage.  I expect a soft market in Eugene Springfield until our stubbornly high unemployment rate drops.

More jobs will help Eugene's real estate market.



Eugene’s UGB and Affordability

Increased density and more multi-family housing in Eugene  is what the powers that be see in our future.   We’re still a few weeks off from learning if the Urban Growth Boundry (UGB) will grow.  My guess is not, but we shall see.  The unintended consequence of a tight UGB is higher land cost, and therefore less afordability, but this is often overlooked.



Eugene Commercial Real Estate On The Rise

High quality commercial real estate is in demand, and prices are edging up.  Both in Eugene and nation-wide.  Why?  The lack of alternative investments.  Even 6% or 7% cash-flow coupled with appreciation is good compared to minuscule interest paid by banks or bonds.

For instance, a year ago the Mortgage Bankers Association sold it’s glass-walled office building to real-estate data firm CoStar Group Inc. for $41.3 million (they purchased the building in 2007 for $79 million–ouch). Now, a German real-estate fund is buying the building from CoStar for $101 million.  Seventy million in a year–that’ll get your attention.

Woodfield Station in South Eugene (Willamette Plaza on 29th and Willamette to old-timers) recently sold for over 25 million dollars to Iowa PERS.  The previous owner, an insurance company, purchased the property in 1971 and subsequently redeveloped it over the years.  Cap rates weren’t disclosed, but I’d guess they were low.

High quality is back in fashion again.  Contact me for your commercial real estate needs in Eugene. 

Woodfield Station in Eugene, OR



New homes getting smaller
June 30, 2010, 3:13 pm
Filed under: Real Estate, Uncategorized | Tags: , ,

New homes are starting to get smaller for the first time in nearly three decades. The average size of new single-family homes dropped from 2,521 square feet in 2007, hit a plateau in 2008 and began falling in 2009. The average home now has fewer beds and bathrooms as well. This decline of home size has not been solely caused by the crash in the housing market, and instead has decreased due to other factors, such as an increased share of first-time home buyers and a desire to lower energy costs.




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